Disaster is waiting in the wings. So let’s frame things for a moment.

For the six years prior to Dan Snyder owning the team, the Redskins averaged 6 wins.

Under him, they’ve averaged a game and a half better, at 7.6.

In those prior six years, their average Offensive ranking was 16, their average Defensive ranking 20 (both points, not yards — I personally think yards deceive, because it’s points that really matter).

In ten years under Snyder, their average Offensive ranking was 21, their average Defensive rating 15.

In other words, all that’s happened is that the units have flipped. One side got better, the other side worse. The six years prior to Snyder’s arrival had a better offense than we remember — an average offense — and the past ten years they’ve had a defense ranked in the top ten half of the years he’s owned the team (six times if you measure it by yards, but again, I don’t).

This year, the Redskins have an Offense ranked 29th in points scored, 24th in yards. They have a Defense ranked 6th in points allowed and 7th in yards allowed.

In other words: as bad as it seems, this is really par for the course: a below average Offense has become a terrible one, and a Defense has remained a top ten entity.

A top ten defense coupled with a terrible offense makes for a solidly below average team. This is all the more frustrating when you consider that the defense is primarily composed of free agents (only four out of eleven current starters were drafted by the team), while the reverse is true of the offense, a majority of which was drafted by the team in the person of Mr. Vinny Cerrato, a yes-man caricature of a disastrous front office man, whose incoherent style has translated to a misbegotten mashup of players, none of whom fit the offensive scheme the Redskins currently run.

The lesson of the past few years, as told via the Worldwide Leader and countless commentators, is that Defense Wins Championships. This is actually, upon further inspection, a lie — the Baltimore Ravens of old are the exception that proves the rule. There are plenty of examples of top ten defenses, including the Redskins teams of the past decade, that have missed the playoffs or made no mark in them. The truth is that you can’t win without a defense — that Balance Wins Championships. A top flight offense without a capable defense is chewy fodder for better teams in January, but everyone needs to be able to manage the clock, control possession, and score points.

So how do you fix this terrible offense? There are two solutions, both of which the Redskins, in my opinion, are likely to follow: a new scheme (which means a new head coach), and a new front office (which means a new GM).

Let’s take the front office first. This week has, for Redskins fandom, been primarily focused on the injury to left tackle Chris Samuels. Arguably the best and most consistent Redskins player of the past decade, Samuels has consistently faced some of the best attacking talent in the NFL in recent years. What is amazing, if you pause to consider it, is the list of Redskins quarterbacks he’s protected in that time.

• Brad Johnson
• Jeff George
• Todd Husak
• Tony Banks
• Kent Graham
• Shane Matthews
• Danny Wuerffel
• Patrick Ramsey
• Tim Hasselbeck
• Rob Johnson
• Gibran Hamdan
• Mark Brunell
• Jason Campbell
• Todd Collins

There’s something you’ll notice about this list, and it’s not good: only two of these quarterbacks could ever have been considered in the top tier of passers in the league, and only one of them — Johnson — had his best season in a Redskins uniform (in 1999, Johnson threw for 4,005 yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs, and a 60.9% completion percentage). The next best single season is the veteran Brunell’s, in 2005, when he threw for 3,050 yards, 23 TDs, and 10 INTs — a shadow of his former self, but good enough in a run heavy offense. Both, as you might expect, were playoff years.

There’s something else you may notice here: very few if any of these quarterbacks have the same skillset or similar talents. A consistent offense demands a consistent passer. While Campbell has proven himself to be an acceptable if limited pro-caliber passer in the past two seasons, the rest of these players are backup quality at best. Consistency demands a signal caller who has the capability to make a variety of throws, limit turnovers, lead a two minute drive, and force defenses to stay honest. Surveying the league, this can be said to be true of, by my count, 22 out of 32 franchises — the exceptions being the Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jets, Lions, Browns, Niners, Titans and yes, the Redskins.

Collectively, no team in this grouping has more than three wins, several are winless, and most are at the bottom of their divisions. Only two teams with terrible records — the winless Rams with an injured Marc Bulger, and the one win Chiefs with an injured Matt Cassel — have quarterbacks who have proven themselves to be in the top tier of quarterbacks in the NFL in the recent past.

Under Snyder, the Redskins desperately need someone who can build, run, and sustain an offense. That means adopting a mentality, drafting players who fit that mentality, and going from there. Most importantly, it means having a quarterback who fits your system: there’s a perfect example of system-shock in the circumstances in Chicago, where Jay Cutler’s inability to adapt to Ron Turner’s offense is proving disastrous, versus those in Denver, where the previously mediocre Kyle Orton has shown himself to be an excellent fit in Josh McDaniels’ system.

It does not require years of effort to build a consistent above-average offense with acceptable personnel. One need not look at the Colts, Patriots, Eagles or Saints as the model here: instead, look at a team like Houston. The Texans have built a showstopping offense around the solid Matt Schaub (seeing Schaub several times at UVA, I always believed he’d be an excellent quarterback at the pro level, but even I am amazed at his skill at this point in his relatively young career), a field-stretching receiver, a relatively light but agile line, and a quick athletic scatback in Steve Slaton.

These pieces fit together well, after being assembled in essentially three years, in ways that contrast notably with the schizophrenic pursuits of the Redskins — a team which has shifted from Norv Turner’s Dallas attack, to Martyball, to Fun-and-Gun, to Gibbs’ Smashmouth 2.0, to Al Saunders, to a hybrid West Coast attack all in less than a decade. Inconsistent offensive schemes make for inconsistent offensive drafts, and while the Redskins’ defensive scheme is for the most part unchanged, and the consistency there has proved rewarding, the back and forth nature of the demands and requirements of the offense has resulted in a soup of ridiculously unmatched talent, with an aging offensive line nearly bereft of depth and aging skill players backed up by a mix of mediocrity and outright busts.

The front office has to take the blame for this circumstance, and in this team’s arrangement, that translates to the aforementioned Cerrato. Cerrato is not the worst personnel head in the NFL, and he deserves credit for his strong, defense-focused first round picks — he ignored pleas from the fanbase in taking Sean Taylor over Kellen Winslow, Carlos Rogers over Mike Williams — none of whom were embarrassing busts (which cannot be said of nearly any team in the NFL over the past several years). The worst first round pick arguably happened in the one year he was absent (Rod Gardner). That said, Cerrato fails not on the big questions, but on countless little ones — his drafts have failed to produce the cheap raw talent in the middle rounds that grows into starting caliber players.

In my opinion, entirely from the outside, Cerrato now understands his destiny is tied to Coach Jim Zorn’s. His recent statement of support for the coach is just the last domino in a long chain of events — particularly Cerrato’s notable failures in the 2006 free agent period and the 2008 draft, both of which had wide-ranging ramifications for the franchise — which has put his head in the stocks. If this season doesn’t turn around for the Redskins — and a turnaround, ridiculously unlikely at this point, would mean a better than .500 season — it is altogether too convenient for Snyder to send a signal to the fans by dismissing both Zorn and Cerrato, and starting anew: a new scheme, and a new front office to fuel it.

Snyder is not an awful owner. There are clearly worse ones in the league — in my opinion, I’ll always favor an owner who’s willing to take the money gained on a team and re-invest it, as opposed to one happy to stand pat with below average personnel and a system proven not to work — and Snyder is clearly a fan of the franchise, not merely a money-grubbing businessman looking to benefit himself. Unfortunately, it’s clear that Snyder has many of the same weaknesses as Jerry Jones in Dallas: a tendency to meddle, to waste money on subpar or over-the-hill talent (Dallas tends to overspend for young while Washington overspends for old — the Cowboys trade a third round pick for Drew Henson and hands him $3.5 million guaranteed without playing a down, the Redskins trade a second and sixth round pick for Jason Taylor), and to make excessively petty moves. Snyder has more playoff wins in his tenure than Jones, of course — but otherwise, their teams are remarkably similar: they make a great deal of money for their owners, they dominate the offseasons, and their fans are watching someone else in January.

If Snyder truly wants to change that, he’ll hand the reins of the front-office to a proven GM — there are a solid five or six names in the market this coming year — who will select and approve a proven offensive-minded head coach, and allow him the time to build, run, and sustain that offense. That’s the only way you’ll achieve balance on this team, and in my opinion, it’s the only way the Redskins will ever be a real contender.

Football teams have windows of opportunity in the NFL. They have a handful of years to make a run, usually tied to the tenure of an established quarterback paired with a solid defense. Pittsburgh is in the middle of their window right now, as is San Diego and Baltimore — for the Colts, the Eagles and New England, those windows may be closing. Looking at the Redskins of 2009, it’s hard to feel like this is a team that has several good years ahead of it. While the defense is young and solid, the offensive line is one of the oldest groups in the league, and it’s thin to say the least — young talent like RT Stephon Heyer and RG Chad Rinehart look more like backup quality players than starters. Stud running back Clinton Portis likely has only two more years of life, if the 30-year mark for RBs in this NFL holds true, wideouts Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are aging, and last year’s crop of second-round pass-catchers has failed to impress thus far. Once again, this looks like a team that will hold opponents to low scoring outputs, but be frustrated from putting points up on the board.

Prediction: Mediocrity! But at least it’ll be entertaining mediocrity.

Slingin Sammy Baugh – the greatest two-way quarterback who ever lived – has died at age 94.

The only quarterback to ever lead the league in touchdowns, defensive takeaways, and punting (he still holds the NFL record for highest career punting average), Sam Baugh once threw four touchdowns and intercepted four passes (he was the first to ever do that) in the same game. The skinny Texan (6′2, 175) with a heavy drawl had famous tilts running the double wing against the Bears – he once left the Championship Game with a concussion after a particularly brutal tackle of Sid Luckman – was the sports rivalry of the forties. He played for 16 years, all without a facemask. He won the passing title six times, a record that has only been tied once, and never beaten.

After returning home in 1952, he got a few coaching jobs, then retired to his 6,000 acre ranch. His wife Edmonia died in 1990, after 52 years of marriage. In the years since, he welcomed hundreds of passersby to his home, regaling them with tales of the old days of the gridiron.

Sam Baugh’s number, 33, remains the only one the Redskins have ever officially retired.

(Read an on-scene account of Baugh’s style from 1937 here.)

Past rumors are now confirmed as absolute truth in the wake of the slobberknocker comeback in Philly: Redskins Owner Daniel Snyder is, in all actuality, Michael Scott’s long lost twin brother. Well, but maybe with a little more of that John Henderson fire (from an old WaPo profile):

“Hey, turn on ESPN!” he says. “They got the Redskins! Turn it on!” I turn on the TV in my room so now we are both watching ESPN. “They’re showing us losing to Dallas!” he mutters. The Dallas Cowboys have now beaten the Redskins nine consecutive times.

“I hate Dallas,” Snyder yells. “. . . Would I cut off a finger to beat Dallas?”

“I don’t know, Dan,” I reply, “you might.”

“I would,” he says.

The original evidence is provided by Mr. Irrelevant.

Pearlman writes that Michael Irvin, incensed that tackle Everett McIver, in mid-haircut, would not leave a barber chair at training camp in 1998 so Irvin could get his haircut first, stabbed McIver in the neck. McIver was rushed to the hospital and survived, but not without losing a lot of blood. Irvin’s silence on the charge has been deafening. I asked a Cowboy who played on that team if the story was true. “Absolutely,” the Cowboy said. “I’m surprised it was kept quiet over the years.”

More from Jamie Mottram.

My goal is not only to end a career but to be launched into a future that produces a light and carries out the purpose of God. With all this great joy, something in my heart has always said, ‘Is that it?’ You have given me a great platform and a great community to do what I believe … to change the world for all that is good, right and Godly.

How’s that for an exit quote? Darrell Green’s last game was a rush of emotional and sometimes bizarre plays,  as the classiest guy around suited up for the last time. The memories of reporters and fans filled the day, and the end to the Cowboy’s 10-game winning streak was just icing on the cake. The Skins even denied Emmitt Smith the measly 38 yards he needed for another consecutive thousand yard season. He rushed 18 times for a total of 13 yards. 13 freaking yards!

Wilbon says it best: “I want to be like Darrell Green when I grow up.” Not the player – but the man.

Taylor and his fiancee, Jackie Garcia, were asleep with their 18-month-old daughter when they were awakened by noises in the house. Taylor reached for a machete or other form of knife he keeps nearby in case of emergency, Sharpstein said. He told CNN that Taylor then locked the door of the bedroom, but that an intruder kicked the door in and fired twice, striking Taylor once in the upper leg. Garcia and the child were uninjured.

“This was a deliberate attack,” said Vinny Cerrato, Redskins vice president of football operations.

In pro football, the Free Safety is the last line of Defense against the opposition. He is expected to cover ground at an incredible pace, snag key interceptions on long passes, run stride for stride with the best speed receivers in the league, and outleap the best jumpers at the endzone. He must play smart yet fearless, guard against the big play, be an exceptional open field tackler, and never give up anything. He must guard the line of the endzone.

It is not a position for the weak of heart. So Sean Taylor’s heart was huge.

The violent death of Redskins Free Safety Sean Taylor is not something that any fanbase, any team can get over – maybe ever. Even before his death early Tuesday morning, Taylor was leading all defensive players in Pro Bowl votes, and the entire NFL in interceptions. The sudden demise of such a talented young athlete, nationally known, about to enter the prime of his career, has only one real comparison: it is as devastating to a franchise and a city as the death of Len Bias 21 years ago.

Sean Taylor was described as many things – but perhaps more often than any other term, he was held up as an example of the prototypical free safety of a new, more violent National Football League. At The U, he was a physical freak, an amazing specimen, equipped with the size and strength of a linebacker and the speed and agility of a cornerback. Taylor didn’t just cover – he hit, and he hit hard. In just his second year in the league, he became a feared slammer, tagged as “The Hitman,” “The Grim Reaper,” or by some, the term that’s now become even larger than him: “Meast.”

Sean Taylor was a human highlight reel. Footage of wide receivers being decked by Taylor in his first year turned into footage of wideouts developing alligator arms, or giving up on routes rather than risk getting pummeled by the young man from Miami. I was there for much of it – my sister, brother and I had season tickets in 2005, his first full year as a starter – and we couldn’t help but be amazed at what we were witnessing on the field. This was a game-changing old school tough, with the physical gifts to play like a wild man – a once-in-a-lifetime player. A phenom who actually surpassed his hype.

Writers said he was the next Ronnie Lott. No one laughed; a few wide receivers winced. And now he is gone.

The shock of this young man’s death extends beyond the margins of the field, to fans and non-fans alike. People who loved Taylor’s style, if not his team, mourn the loss of one of the most entertaining on-field talents in the game. People who knew him only from television and the sidelines stand and light candles in a cold, dark night as if he was a brother. And as the countless stories shared on websites over the past few hours show us, for many of the youngest Redskins fans, this marks the first confrontation with death.

Others are already locked into a debate, prompted at least in part by Chicago’s Mike Wilbon and his insensitive comments, about the role Taylor’s “association with thug life” had with his death. In reality, this is almost certainly a massive oversimplification. Taylor was the son of a Florida City Chief of Police. He has no drug record, and the 2005 DUI charge against him was tossed as soon as the judge saw the videotape (which didn’t feature a particularly positive performance by Northern Virginia’s finest). His lone standing arrest, for a run-in with the individual who stole his ATV, has been blown completely out of proportion. And even if you accept a view of Sean Taylor as an off-field thug (one wonders what this makes Pac Man Jones, Tank Johnson, or anyone else), his teammates and friends universally hold the opinion that this is a young man who had matured significantly over the past two years. He was never one to engage in public relations activity, but those who covered the team couldn’t help but notice the change, from an egotistical and proud young man to a father and soon-to-be husband.

Taylor’s experience may ultimately have more in common with the bizarre home invasion and kidnapping of the Texans’ Dunta Robinson, or the drive-by murder of Darrent Williams. They are all young, prominent black men, none of them with gang ties, none of them known for frequenting strip clubs or violent locales, all with some degree of wealth – and all of them were deliberately targeted. While there remains confusion about whether this was a burglary attempting to catch an empty house on gameday, Taylor reportedly went on a bike ride Sunday evening before he turned in, so it’s possible his attackers knew full well he’d be at home.

For a few days at least, Taylor’s death transcends sports – and stands as a terrible reminder of the astounding death rates of young black men, one more young life cut short far too soon. The sad truth is that many white commentators will sincerely nod their heads, and sigh, and speak of how tragic it all is…and, growing uncomfortable, move on to other issues they find more pressing. And the death march will go on.

The shock of this death will fade for many – but not for me, and not for those for whom Sean will always be the center of their life. I have no idea if Sean Taylor’s family can help his fiancee and daughter the way they need it at this moment, but I know Coach Joe Gibbs can help this team the way it needs it at this moment, and so do his former players. Moments like these demand the leadership of a someone who knows his Creator, and knows him well. We can only pray and hope there are similar individuals in the lives of Jackie Garcia and her young daughter, who will never know her father’s face.

It is a dark day. But when I think about the last moments of Sean Taylor’s life, I can’t help but imagine that he knew the position he was in as he stood for before the last line, and knew it well.

The story we are told today is that when he heard the noise, he took a blade he kept under the bed for emergencies – he still never owned a gun – and locked the bedroom door. He stood in front of it, doubtlessly focused as he gripped the handle, standing at the ready, his wife and young daughter in the room behind him. He could not know what would come, but he had to know, as any young father does, that whoever it was would never pass by him.

Sean Taylor would guard the line to the end. Let them find the man who did it better.

R.I.P.

[tags]Sean Taylor, NFL, Redskins[/tags]

To An Athlete Dying Young

The time you won your town the race
We chaired you through the market-place;
Man and boy stood cheering by,
And home we brought you shoulder-high.

To-day, the road all runners come,
Shoulder-high we bring you home,
And set you at your threshold down,
Townsman of a stiller town.

Smart lad, to slip betimes away
From fields where glory does not stay,
And early though the laurel grows
It withers quicker than the rose.

Eyes the shady night has shut
Cannot see the record cut,
And silence sounds no worse than cheers
After earth has stopped the ears:

Now you will not swell the rout
Of lads that wore their honours out,
Runners whom renown outran
And the name died before the man.

So set, before its echoes fade,
The fleet foot on the sill of shade,
And hold to the low lintel up
The still-defended challenge-cup.

And round that early-laurelled head
Will flock to gaze the strengthless dead,
And find unwithered on its curls
The garland briefer than a girl’s.

-A.E. Housman

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[tags]Sean Taylor, NFL, Redskins[/tags]