Predictions as valuable as the money you paid for them, two weeks out. Made after reading Sean Trende, which you should always do.
-House: Republicans win ~60 seats. I would take the over — the real wave will happen here.
-Senate: Republicans win with Johnson, Buck, Angle, Toomey, Coats, Hoeven and Boozman (+7). Hold their seats with Lee, Ayotte, Portman, Blunt, Paul, Rubio and Miller. Democrats save some face as Boxer, Blumenthal and Manchin win narrowly. Murray wins easily. Giannoulias wins … after a recount.
-Haley Barbour’s RGA has a very successful night, winning NM, OH, PA, OR, WI, ME, MI, IL, SC, GA, and of course TX, a sweep which hides the fact that they’ll lose R seats in RI, VT, HI, and (technically) CA. The Florida governor race remains too close to call (I’m not sure about this one).
-Stunners: Tancredo stuns by winning in CO, and Baker stuns by upsetting Deval Patrick in Massachusetts. O’Donnell surprises by only losing by single digits — the hopes of a thousand Washington journalists rise on Twitter like a tide, and then are suddenly silenced.
A wave for Republicans in the gubernatorial races and a solid performance for Republicans in the Senate. With better candidates and campaign operations, the GOP might’ve taken the Senate too.
I’ll update these next week.
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